Possible Geopolitical Changes in 2026

The world map has stayed mostly the same for decades, with countries keeping their borders even during big conflicts. But in 2026, some ongoing disputes could lead to changes in who controls certain territories. These aren’t guaranteed—geopolitics is unpredictable—but experts are watching a few hot spots closely.

Russia and Ukraine

The war between Russia and Ukraine continues to affect Europe’s borders. Russia currently controls parts of eastern and southern Ukraine, including Crimea, which it took in 2014. Most countries still recognize these areas as Ukrainian territory.

By 2026, the front lines could change again, depending on how the war develops. If Ukraine retakes more land, its borders could move back toward how they looked before 2022. If Russia keeps control, those borders might remain frozen, even if the rest of the world refuses to accept them as official. Kyiv will remain the capital of Ukraine.

Bougainville

Bougainville is an island region that belongs to Papua New Guinea. In a 2019 referendum, almost everyone there voted to become independent. Since then, leaders from Bougainville and Papua New Guinea have been negotiating how and when that independence might happen.

If all goes according to plan, Bougainville could become a new country around 2026 or 2027. The capital would probably be either Buka or Arawa. If independence happens, Bougainville would be the first new country recognized by the United Nations since South Sudan in 2011.

New Caledonia

New Caledonia is a group of islands in the Pacific that is currently part of France. It already has some self-rule but will hold another vote in 2026 to decide its future. Voters can choose between remaining part of France with more autonomy or moving toward full independence. Nouméa would remain the capital in either case. The result of this vote could shape the islands’ future for decades.

Kosovo and Serbia

Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008, but Serbia has never accepted it. Over the years, some politicians have discussed a possible land swap to settle the dispute—giving Serbia control of some Serb-majority areas in northern Kosovo and Kosovo control of Albanian-majority areas in southern Serbia.

No agreement has been reached, but international talks may continue in 2026. If a deal were made, it would be one of the first official border changes in Europe in many years.

Greenland

Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark but has its own parliament and government. It aims to become fully independent in the future. That will not happen in 2026, but Greenland might take more steps toward self-government. Nuuk will stay the capital, and independence could still be several years away.

Taiwan and China

China sees Taiwan as part of its territory and has not ruled out force to unify. Taiwan functions as an independent democracy. Experts watch for increased pressure like military exercises, but a full invasion is considered low probability in 2026. No border change is expected soon.

Greater Idaho

In the United States, some people in eastern Oregon want their region to become part of Idaho. A few local votes have supported this idea, but changing state borders is very difficult. Both state legislatures and the U.S. Congress would have to approve, which makes it very unlikely to happen anytime soon.